AI Narrative Risk
Assesses whether market activity is driven by execution or narrative.
Current Status
Last updated: Feb 20, 2026
• Funding accelerating but execution lagging
• High reliance on PR/media sources (0%)
What It Means
Narrative Risk measures the divergence between hype (funding, PR) and substance (execution events, real adoption).
Execution-led: Market activity driven by real deals, partnerships, and production deployments. Lower risk of narrative correction.
Narrative-led: Mixed signals. Funding and PR are present but not clearly ahead of execution. Watch for divergence.
Narrative-heavy: Funding accelerating without corresponding execution. High risk of narrative correction when reality doesn't match expectations.
Which Stock Categories Tend to Benefit
Infrastructure
Most sensitive to narrative risk—exposed to hype cycles in AI compute demand.
Models & Platforms
Moderately sensitive—platform adoption can be narrative-driven.
Data & Analytics
Less sensitive—data needs are more tied to production workloads.
Applications
Less sensitive—application value tied to customer outcomes.
How We Compute It
- •Computed from funding momentum vs execution momentum divergence.
- •Source quality analysis: ratio of filing/investor sources vs press/media sources.
- •Narrative-heavy when funding accelerates but execution lags AND source quality is low.
Limitations
- •Source classification may have errors.
- •Narrative risk doesn't predict timing of corrections.
- •Some narrative is necessary for market development.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.